✕ marks the spot

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Best innovation payoff

Where an emerging technique moves the needle most: the gap between the frontier findability (emerging/speculative techniques at weight) and findability now. Big gap = a technique breakthrough would change the game.

#TreasureStatusFrontier lift ExistsFindable nowFrontier
1 Lost Dutchman's Gold Mine OPEN HARD-BUT-POSSIBLE → PLAUSIBLY-FINDABLE (+1 band) DOUBTFUL HARD-BUT-POSSIBLE PLAUSIBLY-FINDABLE
2 Confederate Gold OPEN HARD-BUT-POSSIBLE → PLAUSIBLY-FINDABLE (+1 band) CONTESTED HARD-BUT-POSSIBLE PLAUSIBLY-FINDABLE