✕ marks the spot

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Nuestra Señora de Atocha

shipwreck cargo FOUND fame 4/5

Spanish galleon sunk in a 1622 hurricane off the Florida Keys as almirante of the Tierra Firme fleet; Mel Fisher's team found the main wreck site in 1985 after a 16-year archive-guided search.

Resolved (1985-07-20): Main cultural deposit ("the motherlode") located by Mel Fisher's Treasure Salvors on 20 July 1985 after a 16-year search near the Marquesas Keys.

Scorecard

Exists
VERY-LIKELY
band 5/5 · raw +6.26
  • +2.35 · On 20 July 1985 Treasure Salvors divers located the Atocha's main cultural…
  • +1.90 · The fleet's registro (cargo manifest), preserved in the Archivo General de…
  • +1.00 · class_prior
Findable now
PLAUSIBLY-FINDABLE
band 4/5 · raw +3.80
  • +2.00 · location_term
  • +1.44 · Eugene Lyon's archival research in the Archivo General de Indias showed the 1622…
  • +0.71 · Treasure Salvors found silver bars whose weights and tally numbers matched the…
Findable (frontier)
PLAUSIBLY-FINDABLE
band 4/5 · raw +3.80
  • +2.00 · location_term
  • +1.44 · Eugene Lyon's archival research in the Archivo General de Indias showed the 1622…
  • +0.71 · Treasure Salvors found silver bars whose weights and tally numbers matched the…

Location hypotheses

The interactive map (Leaflet + OpenStreetMap tiles) is the one part of this page that needs a network connection; the hypothesis list below is the offline-readable source of truth.

HypothesisCoordsRadiusPrior PosteriorNote
Marquesas Keys (Cayos del Marqués) 24.550, -82.130 15 km 0.60 Supported by Lyon's 1970 archival reading of the salvage records.
Matecumbe Keys 24.860, -80.730 30 km 0.25 The pre-1970 consensus site, from a loose reading of 'Matecumbe' in colonial accounts.

What would it take?

No emerging or speculative technique changes the picture yet — the frontier findability band (PLAUSIBLY-FINDABLE) equals the current band. A breakthrough here would need a genuinely new capability, not just a maturing one.

Evidence ledger (6 verified facts)

Search history (negative evidence)

YearsTechniqueCoverageDetection ResultNotes
1622–1626 20% 30% null_result Recovered much of the Santa Margarita; the Atocha's hull had scattered and eluded grappling.
1969–1984 50% 50% partial Magnetometer grid search; scattered finds (1973 silver bars, 1975 cannon) but not the main pile.
1985 70% 60% found Motherlode located 20 July 1985.