MH370 High-Value Cargo
shipwreck cargo OPEN fame 5/5
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 vanished on 8 March 2014 en route Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, carrying passengers and a manifested cargo that included a much-discussed consignment of lithium-ion batteries and mangosteens plus, per the manifest, other freight. Included as a modern "known loss, unknown main-wreck site" edge case: confirmed debris, no located main wreckage.
Scorecard
- +1.00 · class_prior
- +0.90 · MH370, a Boeing 777-200ER, lost contact over the South China Sea on 8 March…
- +0.45 · Confirmed debris — beginning with a flaperon found on Réunion in July 2015 —…
- +3.00 · technique_term
- -2.00 · location_term
- -0.64 · Deep-ocean searches by Australia's ATSB (2014-2017) and by Ocean Infinity (2018)…
- +3.00 · technique_term
- -2.00 · location_term
- -0.45 · Confirmed debris — beginning with a flaperon found on Réunion in July 2015 —…
Location hypotheses
The interactive map (Leaflet + OpenStreetMap tiles) is the one part of this page that needs a network connection; the hypothesis list below is the offline-readable source of truth.
| Hypothesis | Coords | Radius | Prior | Posterior | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Indian Ocean 7th-arc search zone | -35.000, 92.800 | 200 km | 0.50 | — | The Inmarsat 7th-arc corridor; refined drift and BFO analyses narrow but do not fix it. |
What would it take?
No emerging or speculative technique changes the picture yet — the frontier findability band (HARD-BUT-POSSIBLE) equals the current band. A breakthrough here would need a genuinely new capability, not just a maturing one.
Evidence ledger (3 verified facts)
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MH370, a Boeing 777-200ER, lost contact over the South China Sea on 8 March 2014; military radar and Inmarsat satellite handshake data placed its final arc in the southern Indian Ocean far off western Australia.known by 2014-03-25 · diagnosticity high · confidence 0.90↳ Wikipedia: Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 journalistic
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Confirmed debris — beginning with a flaperon found on Réunion in July 2015 — washed ashore across the western Indian Ocean, proving the aircraft came down at sea while the main wreckage stayed unlocated.known by 2015-09-01 · diagnosticity high · confidence 0.90↳ Wikipedia: Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 journalistic
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Deep-ocean searches by Australia's ATSB (2014-2017) and by Ocean Infinity (2018) covered roughly 120,000 sq km of rugged seabed to ~6,000 m without finding the main wreck, underscoring how large and deep the search area is.known by 2018-06-01 · diagnosticity high · confidence 0.85↳ Wikipedia: Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 journalistic
Technique matrix
| Technique | Family | Maturity | Applicability | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autonomous AUV swarm survey | marine | speculative | 3/3 | Parallel cheap AUVs are the frontier that could cover the vast 7th-arc corridor in weeks. |
| Deep autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) survey | marine | available | 3/3 | 6000m-class AUV survey is the only practical way to image this seabed. |
| Drift & current back-modeling | marine | available | 3/3 | Debris drift back-modeling (Réunion, Africa finds) constrains the entry latitude. |
| Side-scan sonar | marine | available | 2/3 | Towed/AUV sonar images debris fields once a zone is prioritized. |
Search history (negative evidence)
| Years | Technique | Coverage | Detection | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | deep-auv-survey | 50% | 70% | null_result | Multi-AUV 'no find, no fee' search of priority zones; no main wreckage located. |